Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US WIC participation, August 2026
What will USDA FNS first report as total WIC participation for August 2026, not seasonally adjusted, converted from the official participant count to millions?
current forecast · 80% CI7M
6.8M7M7.2M
history:Apr 2025 initial total participation: 6.9MMar 2025 preliminary total participation: 6.8MAug 2024 total participation: 6.8MFY 2025 ERS rounded average participation: 6.9MFY 2024 annual average participation: 6.7M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-11T13:22:29Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 11, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- fns.wic.total_participation.2026-08.first_print
Key drivers
- Official WIC participation rose from a FY 2024 average of 6.704 million to about 6.9 million in FY 2025
- The Apr 2025 first print was 2.0 percent above Apr 2024, showing positive but not explosive caseload growth
- Summer WIC participation has recently tended to run above spring levels
- FY 2026 cash-value benefit continuity and remote certification waivers reduce near-term disruption risk
- Lower births and caseload normalization limit upside above the low-7-million range
Resolution
- source
- USDA Food and Nutrition Service WIC Data Tables
- expected
- November 26, 2026
- rule
- Resolve using the first official USDA FNS WIC Data Tables print for August 2026 total participation, specifically the national total in the WIC PROGRAM: TOTAL PARTICIPATION or successor WIC monthly participation table. Convert the official participant count to millions using factor 0.001 if the table reports thousands, or divide raw participant counts by 1,000,000 if shown as persons. Do not use later revisions or corrections.
- Data point
- fns.wic.total_participation.2026-08.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.