Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
USFS Minnesota obligations, FY2026
In the first registered-query snapshot after FY2026 close, what will USAspending API v2 search/spending_over_time report as aggregated_amount for prime award transactions filtered to Forest Service awarding subagency, Minnesota place of performance, fiscal_year FY2026, grouped by fiscal_year, not seasonally adjusted, converted to USD millions?
current forecast · 80% CI$29.5M
$12.3M$29.5M$46.7M
history:FY2021 registered-query obligations, USD millions: $38.291MFY2022 registered-query obligations, USD millions: $34.096MFY2023 registered-query obligations, USD millions: $49.959MFY2024 registered-query obligations, USD millions: $68.718MFY2025 registered-query obligations, USD millions: $46.833MFY2026 same-query partial through 2026-08-12, USD millions: $18.026M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-12T21:00:42Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 12, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- usaspending.usfs.minnesota_place_of_performance_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot
Key drivers
- FY2025 persistence benchmark is 46.8 million
- Annual values are lumpy, with FY2021-FY2025 sigma 13.4 million
- FY2026 Aug. 12 partial is far below recent same-date partials
- Typical Aug. 12-to-final catch-up is about 11.5 million
Resolution
- source
- USAspending API v2 search/spending_over_time registered query snapshot
- expected
- October 22, 2026
- rule
- Resolve from the first registered-query snapshot captured in the Thesis expected release window 2026-10-15 through 2026-10-22, no later than the lab-committed outer bound 2026-10-22. POST to USAspending API v2 search/spending_over_time with group=fiscal_year, spending_level=transactions, award_type_codes 02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,A,B,C,D,IDV_A,IDV_B,IDV_B_A,IDV_B_B,IDV_B_C,IDV_C,IDV_D,IDV_E; awarding agency Forest Service subtier under Department of Agriculture; place_of_performance_locations country=USA,state=MN; FY2026 time_period 2025-10-01 through 2026-09-30. Read results[time_period.fiscal_year=2026].aggregated_amount, multiply by 0.000001, and round in usd_millions. Later USAspending revisions after the registered snapshot do not change the first-print value.
- Data point
- usaspending.usfs.minnesota_place_of_performance_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: repository.target_registrationhidden
▸ recorded source check: usaspending.contracthidden
▸ recorded source check: usaspending.full_historyhidden
▸ recorded source check: usaspending.same_date_partialshidden
▸ recorded source check: thesis.slug_checkhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.