Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
FY2026 HIDTA AL 95.001 obligations
For FY2026, what will the USAspending API v2 advanced search spending_over_time endpoint return on the first registered-query snapshot for results[time_period.fiscal_year=2026].aggregated_amount, scaled to usd_millions, for prime financial-assistance award transactions filtered to Assistance Listing 95.001, grouped by action-date federal fiscal year, not seasonally adjusted?
current forecast · 80% CI$271.658M
$257.223M$271.658M$286.093M
history:FY2019 registered query value, usd_millions: $284.145MFY2020 registered query value, usd_millions: $270.271MFY2021 registered query value, usd_millions: $268.605MFY2022 registered query value, usd_millions: $252.761MFY2023 registered query value, usd_millions: $266.415MFY2024 registered query value, usd_millions: $273.96MFY2025 registered query value, usd_millions: $271.658M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-12T20:57:24Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 12, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- usaspending.ondcp.hidta_al95001_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot
Key drivers
- last completed fiscal-year persistence
- stable FY2019-FY2025 AL 95.001 range
- continuous USAspending revision/snapshot risk
- FY2026 live query not yet comparable to final snapshot
Resolution
- source
- USAspending API v2 advanced search registered-query snapshot
- expected
- October 22, 2026
- rule
- Resolve from the first archived registered-query snapshot captured in the Thesis expected release window 2026-10-15 through 2026-10-22, with resolutionDate equal to the lab-committed outer bound 2026-10-22. POST to the USAspending API v2 /api/v2/search/spending_over_time/ endpoint using the registered transform fields: group fiscal_year, spendingLevel transactions, programNumbers ["95.001"], awardTypeCodes ["02","03","04","05","06","07","08","09","10","11"], and requestMethod POST, with the FY2026 fiscal-year time period 2025-10-01 through 2026-09-30. Read the unique result where time_period.fiscal_year is 2026, take aggregated_amount in dollars, multiply by 0.000001, and report in usd_millions. This is a registered_query_snapshot / first snapshot rule; later USAspending revisions are irrelevant.
- Data point
- usaspending.ondcp.hidta_al95001_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
§
▸ recorded source check: repo_and_specs.checkhidden
▸ recorded source check: usaspending.spending_over_timehidden
▸ recorded source check: usaspending.spending_over_timehidden
▸ recorded source check: usaspending.spending_over_timehidden
▸ recorded source check: brier.timeserieshidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.