Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
UK PPI Output Manufactured Products Index, July 2026
What will the ONS first-print value be for GD6Y, PPI INDEX OUTPUT TOTAL - C Manufactured products, excluding Duty 2015=100, for 2026 JUL?
current forecast · 80% CI+154.0
+152.9+154.0+155.1
history:2026 JUN: +153.42026 MAY: +152.62026 APR: +152.22026 MAR: +149.52025 JUL: +144.3
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-12T16:06:38Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 12, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- ons.ppi.output_manufactured_products_index.2026_07.first_print
Key drivers
- Recent GD6Y level momentum remained positive through June 2026
- June bulletin said headline output PPI annual inflation eased to 3.5% and monthly output prices were flat
- Refined petroleum output prices fell in June, limiting near-term upside from the spring spike
- July seasonal changes in GD6Y since 2016 average about +0.65 index points
Resolution
- source
- Office for National Statistics Producer price inflation time series, series GD6Y
- expected
- August 19, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first ONS-published value for 2026 JUL in time series GD6Y, PPI INDEX OUTPUT TOTAL - C Manufactured products, excluding Duty 2015=100, on the 19 August 2026 Producer price inflation UK July 2026 time series release. Use the one-decimal index value exactly as first printed by ONS; ignore later revisions and superseded files.
- Data point
- ons.ppi.output_manufactured_products_index.2026_07.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.