Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
SBA Disaster loan charge-offs FY2026
What will the SBA first print for Table 5, Charge Off Amount by Program, Disaster / Disaster, fiscal year 2026, be in dollars?
current forecast · 80% CI$258,333,333
$85,714,286$258,333,333$575,000,000
history:FY2022 official current-vintage Disaster charge-off amount: $180,342,594FY2023 official current-vintage Disaster charge-off amount: $322,632,623FY2024 official current-vintage Disaster charge-off amount: $299,971,326FY2025 Q3 partial Disaster charge-off amount: $107,714,599
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 · 2026-08-08T10:33:07Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 8, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst.ladder_v2
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- sba.disaster.loan_program.charge_off_amount.2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Recent completed Disaster charge-offs are elevated versus 2016-2021 but below the COVID EIDL distortion in the Disaster subtotal.
- FY2025 partial Disaster charge-offs of 107714599 through 2025-06-30 imply full-year risk near but below FY2023-FY2024 if seasonality is ordinary.
- Disaster UPB rose to 11976493088 by FY2025 Q3, supporting a higher dollar base than pre-2022 years.
- FY2025 Q3 gross approvals of 5266748331 add future exposure, but charge-offs usually lag approvals.
Resolution
- source
- Official SBA Loan Program Performance report
- expected
- December 31, 2028
- rule
- Resolve to the first official SBA Loan Program Performance Table 5 - Charge Off Amount by Program print for fiscal year 2026, field Disaster / Disaster, in dollars as printed. Use the first print only; do not replace it with later data-update revisions. The 2028-12-31 resolutionDate is the registered Thesis resolve-by bound, not a scheduled SBA release date.
- Data point
- sba.disaster.loan_program.charge_off_amount.2026.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
§
▸ recorded source check: thesis_announcement_fetch.fetch_official_announcementhidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.