Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US office and administrative support employment, August 2026
What will BLS first publish for August 2026 in CPS Employment Situation Table A-19, row 'Office and administrative support occupations,' Total, 16 years and over, not seasonally adjusted, reported in thousands and converted to millions?
current forecast · 80% CI16.5M
16.1M16.5M16.8M
history:2026-07 BLS LNU02032207: 16.5M2026-06 BLS LNU02032207: 16.2M2026-05 BLS LNU02032207: 16.3M2026-04 BLS LNU02032207: 16.5M2026-03 BLS LNU02032207: 16.6M2025-08 BLS LNU02032207: 16.4M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-13T17:46:45Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 13, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.office_administrative_support.august_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- last-print persistence
- mixed recent monthly changes
- weak August seasonal signal
- CPS occupation sampling volatility
Resolution
- source
- BLS, Employment Situation Table A-19
- expected
- September 11, 2026
- rule
- Resolve from https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea19.htm to the first value published by BLS for August 2026 in CPS Employment Situation Table A-19, row 'Office and administrative support occupations,' Total, 16 years and over, not seasonally adjusted, reported in thousands and multiplied by 0.001 to millions. Use the first official print only, with no later revisions or later correction exceptions. BLS's Employment Situation release calendar fetched this run lists the August 2026 Employment Situation for September 4, 2026 at 08:30 AM ET; the registered Thesis target contract sets resolutionDate to 2026-09-11, so this cell preserves the registered date and records the discrepancy.
- Data point
- bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.office_administrative_support.august_2026.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: bls.calendarhidden
▸ recorded source check: bls.tablehidden
▸ recorded source check: bls.apihidden
▸ recorded source check: bls.metadatahidden
▸ recorded source check: thesis.slug_checkhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.