Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Euro area unemployment, August 2026
What will Eurostat first publish for the euro area 21-country seasonally adjusted total unemployment rate, unit PC_ACT, series une_rt_m/M.SA.TOTAL.PC_ACT.T.EA21, for August 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI6.3%
6.2%6.3%6.4%
history:2026-02: 6.4%2026-03: 6.3%2026-04: 6.3%2026-05: 6.3%2026-06: 6.3%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-12T21:34:14Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 12, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.august_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- last-print persistence at 6.3
- 24-print range only 6.2-6.4
- recent changes mostly zero
- no direct August signal fetched
Resolution
- source
- Eurostat, Euro indicators: Unemployment
- expected
- October 5, 2026
- rule
- Resolve from Eurostat dataset une_rt_m, frequency M, seasonally adjusted SA, age TOTAL, unit PC_ACT, sex T, geo EA21, period 2026-08, first print only as captured between monthly Euro indicators releases. Use the value rounded to one decimal percentage point; ignore later revisions or backfills. The registered ledger target expected release window ends 2026-10-05; the official Eurostat calendar event fetched during drafting separately lists the August 2026 Unemployment release on 2026-10-01.
- Data point
- eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.august_2026.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: eurostat.calendarhidden
▸ recorded source check: eurostat.api.historyhidden
▸ recorded source check: eurostat.api.recenthidden
▸ recorded source check: thesis.specs.checkhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.