Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US transportation and material-moving employment, August 2026
What will BLS first report for August 2026 employed people in transportation and material moving occupations, total age 16 years and over, not seasonally adjusted, in CPS Employment Situation Table A-19, converted from thousands to millions?
current forecast · 80% CI12.3M
11.9M12.3M12.7M
history:January 2026 first print, NSA millions: 12.2MFebruary 2026 first print, NSA millions: 11.7MMarch 2026 first print, NSA millions: 12.2MApril 2026 first print, NSA millions: 12.1MMay 2026 first print, NSA millions: 12.1MJune 2026 first print, NSA millions: 12MJuly 2026 first print, NSA millions: 12.2M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-13T17:06:34Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 13, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.transportation_material_moving.august_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- July 2026 first-print persistence at 12.223 million
- mixed recent monthly CPS occupation volatility
- small August seasonal pull from 2024-2025 history
- July payroll release showed transportation and warehousing little changed
- registered date differs from BLS release notice
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation, CPS Table A-19
- expected
- September 10, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first value published for August 2026 in BLS CPS Employment Situation Table A-19, row 'Transportation and material moving occupations,' Total, 16 years and over, not seasonally adjusted, reported in thousands and multiplied by 0.001 to millions. Retain that first print despite later revisions, rounded to three decimals in millions. The registered ledger target binds resolutionDate 2026-09-10; the checked BLS July 2026 release notice schedules the August 2026 Employment Situation for September 4, 2026, so this date discrepancy is stated without changing the registered target identity.
- Data point
- bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.transportation_material_moving.august_2026.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
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This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.