Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US Import Prices MoM, July 2026
What will the BLS first print for the U.S. Import Price Index (End Use): All Commodities (IR), not seasonally adjusted, monthly percent change for July 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI+1.0%
+0.1%+1.0%+1.9%
history:2026-06 first/latest BLS all imports MoM: +0.3%2026-05 BLS all imports MoM: +1.7%2026-04 BLS all imports MoM: +2.1%2026-03 BLS all imports MoM: +0.9%2026-02 BLS all imports MoM: +1.0%2026-01 BLS all imports MoM: +0.5%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-25T16:09:43Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 25, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- bls.import_price_index.all_imports_mom.2026-07.first_print
Key drivers
- June import-price momentum cooled to +0.3 after very strong April-May prints
- Nonfuel imports were still rising at +0.4 in June and carry about 90% weight
- Late-July crude-oil spike raises fuel-import upside risk
- Broad dollar firmness modestly offsets imported-goods price pressure
- First-print target is the NSA BLS Table 1 all-commodities monthly percent change
Resolution
- source
- BLS U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes, Table 1
- expected
- August 18, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first BLS U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes news release for July 2026, Table 1, row 'All commodities', monthly percent change for June 2026 to July 2026, reported in percent to one decimal. Use the first official print only and ignore later revisions.
- Data point
- bls.import_price_index.all_imports_mom.2026-07.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: history.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: market.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.